Forget the hype around the big names in New York or Los Angeles. The smart money is on Kansas City right now. SportsLine’s Matt Severance just dropped his best MLB home run props for Friday, August 28, and he’s pointing squarely at Royals All-Star Bobby Witt Jr. This isn’t a guess. It’s a calculated move based on the numbers we see every day.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Severance has been crushing it lately. Over the past four MLB seasons, he is up $1,681 on MLB picks. That is real cash in a volatile market. He knows when to strike and when to sit. Last Friday, he picked the Rays’ Yandy Diaz and the White Sox’s Randal Grichuk. Diaz ended up 0-for-4 with a strikeout in Baltimore. That was a tough break, but Severance isn’t letting one bad night stop him. CBS Sports MLB was told by him that Diaz went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and performed poorly in Baltimore. He owns his misses, which makes his hits mean even more.
Now he’s looking at the Royals. Witt Jr. is the kind of player who can change a game with one swing. In a league where no one is on track for 50 home runs, finding a reliable power source is gold. Severance sees it. For those interested in MLB betting, especially home run prop bets, he advises checking his plays for Friday’s games. If he’s backing Witt, you should pay attention.
Schwarber’s Historic Run
While the focus is on the Royals, you can’t ignore what’s happening in Philadelphia. In five seasons, Kyle Schwarber has surpassed 40 home runs on four occasions. That is insane consistency. Ryan Howard and he now share the record for the most 40-home run seasons in franchise history. Even more impressive? Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have matched his count of hitting 40+ homers.
Severance notes that Schwarber is tied with Judge and Ohtani for the most 40+ homer seasons among all active players. The kid is on pace for about 48 home runs. By three home runs, this total tops everyone else. To lead the league in longballs, his current MLB prop betting odds stand at -295. Congratulations if you backed Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber as the first player to reach 40 homers this season with a spring ticket. You cashed on Wednesday, Severance said. The evidence is right there for anyone willing to look.
Where the Money Is
Not every game offers a good bet. Today’s game options are somewhat limited since Denver and Cincinnati are not hosting any matches. Sacramento is hosting games today, but that’s a minor league note. And Severance is clear about the Orioles-Athletics matchup. “But alas, there aren’t any props I like for the Orioles-Athletics matchup, even with winds blowing out,” he admitted. He won’t force a play where the value isn’t there. That discipline is why he’s up over a grand.
The Royals have a chance to shine this Friday. Witt Jr. is ready, and the expert backing him has a track record to prove it. With Schwarber chasing history and Witt stepping up, the home run race is heating up fast.
