The Kansas City Chiefs lead the all-time series 16-13, but the Miami Dolphins actually won three of their four playoff meetings. That split record is the one stat that makes this Week 3 matchup feel different than the regular season blowouts we usually see. The Chiefs have won five straight games against Miami, including a wild-card playoff win in 2023, yet the history books show the Dolphins can still hang with them when the stakes get high.
Per Sports Illustrated, the Dolphins enter Sunday with a 0-2 record while the Chiefs sit at 2-0. The gap in the standings looks massive on paper, but the defensive numbers tell a much more disturbing story for Miami. The Dolphins’ defense is the only unit in the entire league without a single sack heading into Week 3. They face a Chiefs offense that has already fired on almost all cylinders, making this game a nightmare scenario for a team that cannot get to the quarterback.
A Defense That Cannot Get After the QB
Miami’s pass rush is lackluster at best, and the numbers prove it is a broken system. According to reports, the Dolphins’ team pressure rate sits at 28th in the sport, even though they bring five rushers at the sixth-highest clip overall. They are sending extra men but getting no results, which leaves their secondary exposed to a lethal attack. Former Chiefs special teamer Zayne Anderson has played 66 defensive snaps for Miami, accounting for 55% of those available, but he cannot fix a front that refuses to pressure the quarterback.
The back end of the defense is flat-out bad, and the stats are ugly for any Chiefs fan to watch. According to reports, the Dolphins surrender a 0.432 dropback EPA per play, the second-highest mark in the entire sport. Their dropback success rate of 57.6% trails only the Dallas Cowboys as the worst out of 32 teams. Kansas City’s starting offensive line, even without left tackle Josh Simmons, should have little trouble containing a Miami front that has performed poorly against the Las Vegas Raiders and San Francisco 49ers.
Mahomes vs. A Secondary Left to Rot
The matchup at quarterback is the most lopsided part of this entire game. Superstars frequently decide NFL contests, and the visitors possess a distinct advantage that Miami simply cannot match. Patrick Mahomes has extinguished any doubts about his health after a torn ACL and just posted an MVP-level performance in Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts. In that overtime thriller, he passed for 382 yards and three touchdowns, proving his readiness to attack a secondary that leaves much to be desired.
Although rookie Chris Johnson serves as an interesting anchor for Miami’s secondary, his impact is instantly undermined by the starting boundary pairing of Jason Marshall Jr. and JuJu Brents. Brents is a limited participant in late-week practices due to a knee injury, which does not help matters one bit. The Dolphins also have former Dolphins coach Chad O’Shea on the Chiefs staff, adding a layer of familiarity that could hurt Miami if they cannot adjust to the play-calling.
The Final Score and the Stakes
The betting line has the Chiefs favored by 10.5 points, with an over/under of 45.5, but the real story is how bad the Dolphins look on defense. The game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium, where the weather will be 85 degrees with 66% humidity. Following their one-year fall in 2025, Kansas City requires this victory to remain Super Bowl contenders, whereas Miami seeks its first win of the Jon-Eric Sullivan/Jeff Hafley era.
Kenneth Walker led the NFL in rushing with 290 yards through two games, giving the Chiefs the bell-cow running back they lacked since Jamaal Charles. This offensive identity shift is the chess move that makes the Dolphins’ lack of a pass rush even more dangerous. If the Chiefs can run the ball effectively, they will control the clock and keep Mahomes fresh. Unless the Dolphins fix the coverage breakdowns that caused a 21-0 third-quarter onslaught last week, they will endure another painful afternoon. The Chiefs lead the series, but this Week 3 matchup will be decided by who can finally get a sack.
